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GDP
grows 1.9% from Q1 to Q2 2009
In the same comparison, considering the seasonally adjusted
series, the main highlight was industry
(2.1%), followed by services
(1.2%). Agriculture had
negative change of 0.1%. Compared
to the second quarter of 2008,
GDP faced decrease of 1.2%, a result of the decrease of 0.9% of
value added at basic prices and of the reduction of 2.8% of excise
tax. Among the activities, the highlight in this comparison was services
(2.4%). On the other hand,
industry fell by 7.9% and agriculture, by 4.2%. In
four quarters (12 months),
GDP increased 1.3% in relation to the four immediately previous
quarters. Considering the
index accumulated in the
year (1st semester of 2009), GDP fell by 1.5% in relation to the
same period in 2008, and services
alone (2.1%), whereas industry
(-8.6%) and agriculture
(-3.0%) fell. In terms of current
values, GDP reached R$ 756.2 billion in the second quarter of
2009.
Compared
to the first quarter of the year, in relation to the components of
internal demand, the increase of household consumption expenditure
was 2.1%. General government consumption expenditure
had negative change of 0.1%. Gross formation of fixed
capital (FBCF, the same as planned investment) remained
stable, without change. In
the foreign sector, both exports and imports of goods and services
present increase of 14.1% and 1.5%, respectively. Only services increased in relation to 2008 GDP
decreased by 1.2% in the second quarter of 2009, in relation to the
same period in 2008; the value added at basic prices faced reduction
by 0.9%; excise tax, by 2.8%; this result occurred mainly due to the
contribution of industry, especially manufacturing industry and its
decrease of the number of imports. The highlight in this comparison
was services, which grew 2.4%, whereas industry fell 7.9%, and agriculture,
by 4.2%. The
rate of agriculture can be mainly, as a result of the performance of
some products which had a relevant harvest in the quarter and have
estimated production decrease for 2009, as it is the case of
soybeans, corn and coffee. The estimates for agriculture,
silviculture and forest exploitation also indicate low performance
in the quarter. In
industry, all activities had negative rates. The main decrease was
that of manufacturing
industry (-10.0%), which was mainly affected by the reduced
production of machinery and equipment, metallurgy, pieces and
accessories, furniture, apparel and footwear. There was also
decrease of 9.5% in construction; decrease of 4.0% in electricity
and gas, water, sewage and urban cleaning; and reduction by 0.8%
in mining and quarrying
industry, where the extraction of iron ore fell by 27.4%; and
the extraction of petroleum and natural gas increased 5.9%. The
result of services (2.4%) was a consequence of the positive changes
in financial mediation and
insurance (8.2%), which, once more rose at the same level of the
third quarter of 2008; other
services (7.3%); information
services (6.8%), mainly due to the performances of mobile
telephony and computer services; administration,
health and public education (2.8%); and real
estate and rents (1.4%). On the other hand, transportation (of
cargo and passengers), storage and mailing services fell by 5.3%
in the second quarter, as well as trade
(wholesale and retail), which fell by 4.0% - both affected by
the result of manufacturing industry. Household consumption expenditure increased for the
twenty-third consecutive quarter Also in relation to the second quarter of 2008,
in terms of internal demand, household
consumption expenditure reached the
positive rate of 3.2%, the 23rd consecutive increase
on this basis for comparison. One
of the factors accounting for this result was the behavior of real
salary volume, which increased 3.3% in the second quarter of 2009.
Besides, there was increase of 20.3%, in nominal terms, of the
balance of credit operations with free resources of the financial
system with free resources for natural persons. General government consumption increased
2.2% in this comparison, whereas the gross
formation of fixed capital decreased by 17.0%, the biggest
reduction in this basis for comparison since the beginning of the
series, in 1996. This can be mainly seen as a consequence of the
internal production of machinery and equipment. In terms of external
demand, both exports (-11.4%) and imports
(-16.5%) of goods and services remained in decline. In terms of production, only industry had negative rates
accumulated in 12 months Considering
the index accumulated in the
four quarters which ended in the second quarter of 2009, GDP
grew by 1.3%, in relation to the four immediately previous quarters,
with rise of 1.2% of value added and 1.6% of excise tax. In this
comparison, services grew by 3.1%; agriculture,
by 0.2%; and industry, by
3.0%. The
graph below, which shows the evolution of GDP accumulated in four
quarters since 1996, shows how, after rise of 3.3% in the second
quarter of 2006, there was significant increase of the rate, which
reached 6.3% in the third quarter of 2008, decreasing to 1.3% in the
second quarter of 2009.
Among
the industrial activities, the highlight is mining and quarrying industry (1.5%), followed by mining
and quarrying industry (1.5%), followed by electricity and gas,
water, sewage and urban cleaning (stable at 0.2%). On the other
hand, manufacturing industry
faced reduction of 5.2%, and construction, of 1.3%. In
services, the main increases occurred in information
services (7.8%); financial
mediation and insurance (6.9%); and other services (6,1%). There was also increase in public
administration, health
and education (2.9%) and real
estate services and rent (2.0%). On the other hand, there was
decrease in transportation,
storage and mailing (-1.8%); and trade
(-0.4%). In
the analysis of demand, general government consumption
expenditure increased 4.2%, followed by
household consumption expenditure (3.5%). Gross
formation of fixed capital decreased 2.2%,
after 20 quarters with increase in this basis for comparison. In the
foreign sector, both exports (-7.6%) and imports
(-0.8%) of goods and services decreased. GDP fell 1.5% in
the first semester of 2009 In
the first semester of 2009,
GDP fell 1.5%, compared to the figure in the same period of 2008;
there was increase only among services
(2.1%) and decrease in industry
(-8.6%) and agriculture
(-3.0%). All
the four activities of industry presented negative rates in the
comparison by semester; the main decrease occurred in manufacturing
industry (-11.2%), followed by construction
(-9.6%); electricity and gas,
water, sewage and urban cleaning (-4.1%); and mining and quarrying industry (-0.9%). In
services, most increases were those of other
services (7.2%); financial
institutions and insurance (7.0%); information
services (6.1%); public
administration, education and health (3.0%); and
real estate services
and rent (1.5%). Transportation,
storage and mailing services (-5.4%) and trade (-5.0%) faced decrease.
In
the analysis of internal demand of comparison by semester, the
highlights are the increases of 2.5% of general
government consumption expenditure and 2.3% of household consumption expenditure. Gross formation of fixed
capital, on the other hand, fell 15.6%. By analyzing the external
market, imports (-16.3%)
and exports (-13.1%) of
goods and services decreased. In terms of current values, GDP closes 2nd semester
at R$ 756,2 billion In
the second quarter, GDP at market prices reached R$ 756.2 billion,
being R$ 652.4 billion relative to value added and R$ 103.8 billion
to excise tax. Agriculture
had R$ 56.1 billion; industry,
R$ 163.4 billion; services,
R$ 432.9 billion. Household consumption expenditure amounted to R$ 471.2 billion; general
government consumption, to
R$ 155.9 billion; and gross
formation of fixed capital, R$ 118.8 billion. The
balance of goods and services
had a surplus of R$ 7.6 billion, and the change
of stocks was positive by R$ 2.8 billion.
The investment rate of the second quarter of 2009
represented 15.7% of GDP, and was below that of the same period in
the previous year (18.5%). Savings rate was 15.0%.
_________________________________________________________ 1 The series
of agriculture, industry, services, value added, GDP, general
government consumption expenditure, household consumption
expenditure, gross formation of fixed capital, exports and imports
are adjusted individually. 2 According
to The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA/IBGE-
Julho), released in August. 3 According
to the Monthly Employment Survey (PME/IBGE). 4
According to the Press Release “Política Monetária e Operações
de Crédito do Sistema Financeiro”. Social Communication
(press release) |
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